The first casualty of an epidemic is evidence

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Abstract

Background: The COVID-19 has posed a wide range of urgent questions: about the disease, testing, immunity, treatments, and outcomes. Extreme situations, such as pandemics, call for exceptional measures. However, this threatens the production and application of evidence. Methods: This article applies standard categories in epistemology to analyse the pandemic in terms of four kinds of uncertainty: Risk, Fundamental uncertainty, Ignorance, and Ambiguity. Results: Mapping the uncertainties of the pandemic onto the four types of uncertainty directs evidence production towards specific tasks in order to address the challenges of the pandemic: Eliminating ambiguity, being alert to the unknown, and gathering data to estimate risks are crucial to preserve evidence and save lives. Conclusion: In order to avoid fake facts and to provide sustainable solutions, we need to pay attention to the various kinds of uncertainty. Producing high-quality evidence is the solution, not the problem.

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APA

Hofmann, B. (2020, October 1). The first casualty of an epidemic is evidence. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice. Blackwell Publishing Ltd. https://doi.org/10.1111/jep.13443

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