Validation of pre-/post-TACE-predict models among patients with hepatocellular carcinoma receiving transarterial chemoembolization

Abstract

This study attempted to validate the prognostic performance of the proposed Pre- and Post-TACE (transarterial chemoembolization)-Predict models, in comparison with other models for prognostication. One-hundred-and-eighty-seven patients with HCC who underwent TACE were recruited. Regarding overall survival (OS), the predictive performance of the Pre-TACE-Predict model (one-year integrated area under the curve (iAUC) 0.685 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.593– 0.772)) was better than that of the Post-TACE-Predict model (iAUC 0.659 (95% CI 0.580–0.742)). However, there was no significant statistical difference between two models at any time point. For comparison between models using pre-treatment factors, the modified hepatoma arterial emboliza-tion prognostic (mHAP)-II model demonstrated significantly better predictive performance at one year (iAUC 0.767 (95% CI 0.683–0.847)) compared with Pre-TACE-Predict. For comparison between models using first TACE response, the SNACOR model was significantly more predictive at one year (iAUC 0.778 (95% CI 0.687–0.866) vs. 0.659 (95% CI 0.580–0.742), respectively) and three years (iAUC 0.707 (95% CI 0.646–0.770) vs. 0.624 (95% CI 0.564–0.688), respectively) than the Post-TACE- Predict model. mHAP-II and SNACOR may be preferred over the Pre- and Post-TACE-Predict mod-els, respectively, considering their similar or better performance and the ease of application.