Application of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Cost Analysis of New U.S. Fluorescent Lamp Ballast Energy Efficiency Standards

Abstract

Life cycle cost analysis is often used in evaluating potential energyefficiency standards for appliances and lighting. Usually, pointestimates are used for each input variable. There is always uncertaintyin such estimates; we describe how we developed the distributionsrepresenting the variability in electricity price, equipment price,operating hours and ballast lifetime for the analysis of energyefficiency standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts. We worked closelywith the ballast industry to develop all of the engineering data neededto estimate energy savings when magnetic ballasts are replaced withelectronic ballasts. A survey was performed to establish ballast prices.The life cycle cost (LCC) outputs are also in the form of adistribution, we discuss how to interpret these distributions.These LCC results were one of the tools that were used by manufacturersand efficiency advocates to arrive at consensus energy efficiencystandards. The commercial and industrial lighting sector in the U.S.will be subject to new energy efficient lighting regulations beginningin 2005. These regulations affect ballasts (the market is mostlymagnetic now) that operate T12 (38mm or 1.5 inch) fluorescent lamps. Theuse of electronic ballasts will result in cumulative energy savings of1.2 to 4.9 quads of primary energy over the period from 2005 to 2030.Businesses will reduce electricity costs by 2.0 to 7.2 billion dollars(discounted to 1997 at 7% real) and carbon emissions will be reduced by11 to 32 million metric tons over the period 2005-2020.