Factores climáticos y casos de dengue en Montería, Colombia. 2003-2008

Abstract

Objective Assessing the relationship between cases of dengue and climatic factors rainfall (PLUV), temperature (TEMP) and relative humidity (HUM) in Monteria during 2003-2008. Methods This was a descriptive, retrospective study related to climatic variables and dengue cases in Monteria. Rainfall (PLUV), relative humidity (HUM) and temperature (TEMP) data recorded annual and monthly medians and averages. The Shapiro-Wilks correlation coefficient and Kruskal-Wallis non-parametric variance tests were performed. Results Dengue cases did not present normal distribution or significant difference. There were 1,050 cases; the highest number was reported in 2005 (305) but only 80 cases in 2004 (annual average was 175). Univariate analysis of dengue cases was not significantly influenced by HUM (R2 17%), PLUV (R2 18.3%) or TEMP (R2 1.8%). HUM and PLUV variables presented high positive correlation (0.798171). TEMP and PLUV had-0.1310772 negative correlation coefficient; TEMP and HUM had-0.6048030 negative correlation. The strongest climate-dengue case correlation was associated with combining the three variables (TEMP, HUM and PLUV). The Niño and Niña continental phenomena did not influence dengue cases. Conclusions This retrospective study showed a strong and consistent overall association between TEMP, HUM and PLUV affecting dengue transmission in Monteria.