Newest Trends and Future Scenarios for a Sustainable Digital Economy Development

Abstract

Purpose: The aim is to solve the problem by identifying the latest trends and future scenarios for sustainable development of the digital economy, and to identify and justify the most preferable scenario. Design/Methodology/Approach: The authors use the correlation analysis method. The method of regression analysis and simplex method are used to draw up future scenarios of sustainable development of digital economy. The method of simplex analysis is used to find target values of factor variables to achieve the target values of the resulting variables in each scenario, and the method of trend analysis is used to estimate the growth of target values of indicators in comparison with 2019. The top 10 countries in terms of digital competitiveness in 2019 and Russia were selected as targets. Findings: It is shown that the latest trend in the development of the digital economy is its conflict with global sustainable development goals. The experience of the top 10 countries in terms of the level of digital competitiveness in 2019 and Russia has shown that digitalization does not contribute to the development of either a shared economy, or a “green” and circular economy, or an energy-efficient economy, and even hinders their development. Originality/Value: The most promising future scenario for a sustainable digital economy is a “green” digital economy, as it allows for an average doubling of current sustainable development indicators, such as a 1.63-fold improvement in the quality of life index, a 1.58-fold improvement in the “green” economy index, a 4.45-fold improvement in the share of alternative and nuclear energy, and a 0.35-fold reduction in per capita energy consumption. Based on this, it is reasonable that the implementation of global sustainable development goals requires limiting the growth rate of the digital economy.