Study of the Spatial Spillover Effects of the Efficiency of Agricultural Product Circulation in Provinces along the Belt and Road under the Green Total Factor Productivity Framework

Abstract

In the context of China’s socialist market economy, production and circulation are equally important. Production creates value, while circulation realises value, and both are essential components of socialised reproduction. This paper, based on panel data from 30 provinces and cities in China covering the period from 2010 to 2021, uses methods such as the slacks-based model (SBM), global Malmquist–Luenberger (GML) index, generalised method of moments with system estimation (system GMM) and spatial Durbin model to investigate the developing mechanism and influencing factors of agricultural product circulation efficiency in provinces along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) within the framework of green total factor productivity. This study found the following: First, the overall trend of green total factor productivity of agricultural product circulation in provinces along the BRI shows negative growth, especially after the launch of the BRI initiative in 2014. Second, the level of foreign investment has a positive impact on the green total factor productivity of agricultural product circulation in provinces along the BRI. On the other hand, environmental regulations, government support and industrial structure have negative impacts. Third, based on the spatial weight matrix of geographical adjacency, there is a positive spatial spillover effect on the green total factor productivity of agricultural product circulation.