Expected Changes in the Demand for Electrical Energy in Buildings due to Climate Change and its Economic Impact: Madrid Case Study

Abstract

It analyses the impact of global climate change on electricity demand and its respective economic cost in buildings covering an area of 1 km by 1 km in the city of Madrid. In order to know the energy demand, meteorological information has been produced with a spatial resolution of 50 meters, taking into account the three-dimensional structure of the buildings and the land use properties around the buildings. Climate variables are dynamically downscaled from 1° to 50 m using a nesting approach. Energy simulations of buildings are implemented with the EnergyPlus model. To determine the cost of impacts, the future distribution of energy sources in the two climate scenarios analysed and the corresponding 2012 prices of the Spanish Energy Commission are taken into account. Impacts on the area's energy demand are calculated for 2030, 2050 and 2100 versus 2011 under two IPCC global climate projections: RCP 4.5 (emission stabilization scenario) and RCP 8.5 (little effort to reduce emissions). The expected changes in electricity consumption in the year 2100 are very important. RCP 8.5 shows a strong increase in electricity demand for cooling buildings. In RCP 4.5 decreases in electricity consumption are observed (-14.37%) due to very important decreases in temperature. On average, the global climate for the year 2100 will have an impact on a typical building block in Madrid of 117918 euros per year according to scenario RCP 8.5 while in scenario RCP 4.5 110537 euros per year would be saved.