Colorectal cancer trends in Kerman province, the largest province in Iran, with forecasting until 2016

Abstract

Colorectal cancer is one of the most common cancers. The aim of this study is determination its trends in Kerman province and individual cities separately until year 2016. This analytical and modeling study was based of cancer registry data of Kerman University of Medical Sciences, collected during 2001-2010. Among 20,351 cancer case, 792 were colorectal cancer cases in age group 18-93 years with a mean of 59.4 and standard deviation of 15.1. By applying time series and data trends, incidences were predicted until 2016 for the province and each city, with adjustment for population size. In colorectal cases, 413 (52%) were male, and 379 (48%) were female. The annual increasing rate in Kerman province overall was and can be expected to be 6%, and in the cities of the province Rafsanjan, Bardsir, Bam, Kerman, Baft, Sirjan, Jiroft, Kahnuj and Manujan had an increasing range from 5 to 14% by the year 2016. But in Ravar, Zarand and Shahrbabak reduction in rates of at least 2% could be predicted. The time series showed that the trend of colorectal cancer in female will increase 15% and in male 7% by year 2016. Given the trend of this cancer is increasing so that resources will be consumed in the treatment of the patients, efforts shoudlbe focused on prevention and early diagnosis of the disease. Screening could have an important role leading to improved survival.