Transfers in the gravity equation

Abstract

This study integrates development aid into a theoretically founded structural gravity model that considers primary and secondary effects of aid as an income transfer and as a bilateral trade cost determinant. We identify the parameters of our model using a two-stage approach that includes a state-of-the-art Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood gravity estimation for a sample of 132 countries over the period 1995 to 2012. The main findings indicate that bilateral aid only increases bilateral trade for countries that do not have a common language, a past colonial relationship or an RTA. On average, 1 USD of additional foreign aid from all donors increases recipients’ net imports by around 0.36 USD. Our comparative statics indicate that donors experience a reduction in real consumption due to aid and recipients an increase. We also analyze the effect on third countries. The modelling framework also applies to the study of other transfers such as remittances.