Estimating the population at-risk of homelessness in small areas

Abstract

• Successful primary prevention of homelessness requires a detailed understanding of the incidence and profile of the at-risk population, at the national, local and regional (or small area) levels. • This research produces Small Area Estimates (SAE) of the population at-risk of homelessness in Australia. The incidence of homelessness risk is measured as a rate per 10,000 residents at Statistical Area level 2 (SA2) and Statistical Area level 3 (SA3) level. • A person is considered at-risk of homelessness if residing in rental housing and experiencing at least two of the following: low-income; vulnerability to discrimination; low social resources and supports; needing support to access or maintain a living situation; and a tight housing market context. By definition, a person residing in owner-occupied housing is not considered at-risk. • This research combines data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey, waves 16 and 17, and the 2016 Census of Population and Housing. In an attempt to deal with significant data limitations, two model-based SAE methods are employed: a unit-level and an area-level approach. • The unit-level approach utilises HILDA responding person characteristics and Census data. The area-level approach combines direct SA3-level homelessness risk and variance estimates from HILDA and SA3-level Census data. Both approaches utilise regression models to generate SAE of homelessness risk. • Findings suggest that at a national level, the estimated rate of risk per 10,000 persons (across all tenures combined) ranges between 846.9 per 10,000 (8.5% of the total population aged 15 years and over) and 1,165 per 10,000 (11.7%). This range equates to between 1.5 and 2 million Australians at-risk of homelessness-all of whom reside in rental housing. • The highest rates of risk (per 10,000 persons) are found in remote areas and in selected areas of capital cities. The greatest number of people at-risk are living in greater capital cities on the eastern coast of Australia, in both central and suburban locations. • The two different methods used to produce the small-area estimates do not generate a consistent picture of homelessness risk in Australia in all areas, with greater variability in remote parts of the country. • The profile of those at-risk suggests primary prevention policies require policy and service responses at national and state and territory levels that are beyond the usual scope of homelessness policy. • Homelessness risk SAEs provide policy makers, not-for-profit (NFP) service providers and funders with quantified estimates of demand (need) for different types of services. They also provide locational information to maximise and monitor the benefits of investment in spatial and aspatial homelessness prevention initiatives. • Aspatial primary prevention policies include: increasing income support payments; improving the incomes of the lowest paid; and enhancing coordination on homelessness prevention across all levels of government. • Spatial primary prevention policies include: increasing the supply of rental housing affordable to those on the lowest incomes; ensuring access to health and disability supports for those on low incomes; increasing school engagement and retention; and enhancing support to Indigenous Australians in remote communities.