Evaluation of Changes in Prices and Purchases Following Implementation of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxes Across the US

Abstract

Importance: Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes are promoted as key policies to reduce cardiometabolic diseases and other conditions, but comprehensive analyses of SSB taxes in the US have been difficult because of the absence of sufficiently large data samples and methods limitations. Objective: To estimate changes in SSB prices and purchases following SSB taxes in 5 large US cities. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cross-sectional study with an augmented synthetic control analysis, changes in prices and purchases of SSBs were estimated following SSB tax implementation in Boulder, Colorado; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Oakland, California; Seattle, Washington; and San Francisco, California. Changes in SSB prices (in US dollars) and purchases (volume in ounces) in these cities in the 2 years following tax implementation were estimated and compared with control groups constructed from other cities. Changes in adjacent, untaxed areas were assessed to detect any increase in cross-border purchases. Data used for this analysis spanned from January 1, 2012, to February 29, 2020, and were analyzed between June 1, 2022, and September 29, 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were the changes in SSB prices and volume purchased. Results: Using nutritional information, 5500 unique universal product codes were classified as SSBs, according to tax designations. The sample included 26338 stores - 496 located in treated localities, 1340 in bordering localities, and 24502 in the donor pool. Prices of SSBs increased by an average of 33.1% (95% CI, 14.0% to 52.2%; P