Linkage between the Arctic Oscillation and summer climate extreme events over the middle reaches of Yangtze River Valley

Abstract

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is commonly recognized as a dominant large-scale mode influencing climate over the Northern Hemisphere. Here, the influences of May AO on summer (JJA) extreme precipitation events and summer extreme warm days over the middle reaches of Yangtze River Valley for the period 1961−2014 are investigated. Following a positive May AO, there are usually fewer summer extreme precipitation events but more summer extreme warm days over the middle reaches of Yangtze River Valley. Composite analyses show that positive May AO induces the northward displacement of the East Asian jet stream and northeastward displacement of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and causes a stronger, more northwestern subtropical northwest Pacific cyclone/anticyclone anomaly, as well as an anticyclonic circulation anomaly on the north side of the South China Sea, resulting in a northward shift of the rainfall belt and an enhancement of the East Asia summer monsoon. Therefore, the cumulative distribution probability of daily precipitation values shift significantly to a lower precipitation value, indicating lower probabilities of summer extreme precipitation events following positive May AO. A weakening of WPSH induces an anomalous sinking motion over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Valley. The 850 hPa wind field shows southerly wind anomalies over the Jiang-Huai River Basin, which cause a decrease in total cloud cover, resulting in an increase in solar radiation flux. A significant shift of the daily maximum temperature probability distribution towards to higher values indicates higher probabilities of summer extreme warm day occurrences following positive May AO. This study will provide useful insights to help improve the understanding of the dynamics and projections of future regional extreme precipitation changes over the middle reaches of Yangtze River Valley.