Marsh processes and their response to climate change and sea-level rise

Abstract

In addition to their being vital components of mid- to high-latitude coastal ecosystems, salt marshes contain 0.1% of global sequestered terrestrial carbon. Their sustainability is now threatened by accelerating sea-level rise (SLR) that has reached a rate that is many times greater than the rate at which they formed and evolved. Modeling studies have been instrumental in predicting how marsh systems will respond to greater frequencies and durations of tidal inundation and in quantifying thresholds when marshes will succumb and begin to disintegrate due to accelerating SLR. Over the short term, some researchers believe that biogeomorphic feedbacks will improve marsh survival through greater biomass productivity enhanced by warmer temperatures and higher carbon dioxide concentrations. Increased sedimentation rates are less likely due to lower-than-expected suspended sediment concentrations. The majority of marsh loss today is through wave-induced edge erosion that beneficially adds sediment to the system. Edge erosion is partly offset by upland marsh migration during SLR. ▪ Despite positive biogeomorphic feedbacks, many salt marshes will succumb to accelerating sea-level rise due to insufficient mineral sediment. ▪ The latest multivariate marsh modeling is producing predictions of marsh evolution under various sea-level rise scenarios. ▪ The least well-known variables in projecting changes to salt marshes are suspended sediment concentrations and net sediment influx to the marsh. ▪ We are in the infancy of understanding the importance and processes of marsh edge erosion and the overall dynamicism of marshes. ▪ This review defines the latest breakthroughs in understanding the response of salt marshes to accelerating sea-level rise and decreasing sediment supply. ▪ Climate change is accelerating sea-level rise, warming temperatures, and increasing carbon dioxide, all of which are impacting marsh vegetation and vertical accretion.