Assessing the impacts of augmented observations on the forecast of typhoon wutip’s (2013) formation using the ensemble Kalman filter

Abstract

In this study, the impacts of different augmented observations on forecasts of Typhoon Wutip’s (2013) formation are examined. Using the local ensemble transformed Kalman filter (LETKF) implemented for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, it is found that the prediction of Wutip’s formation location and timing is strongly governed by the strength of a monsoon trough that extends from the Bay of Bengal to the Philippine Sea. By properly capturing the strength of the monsoon trough after assimilating augmented observations available during Wutip’s early stage, the WRF Model could provide better forecasts of Wutip’s formation location and timing as compared to the forecasts initialized directly from global model analyses. Among different types of augmented observations, the satellite atmospheric motion wind vector (AMV) maintained by the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) appears to be the most critical in enhancing the large-scale representation of the monsoon trough. The benefit of augmented observations in Wutip’s formation forecast is most apparent at about 36 h prior to the observed formation time. At the shorter 24-h lead time, there is, however, no clear benefit of augmented observations in predicting the timing and the location of Wutip’s formation due to better global analyses. The results obtained in this study demonstrate the vital role of the CIMSS-AMV data in improving the large-scale environment required for TC formation that one should take into account for real-time TC forecasts.