A Water Resources Management Simulation–Optimization Model: Application of Graph-Based Hypergame Model in Water Supply Conflicts Resolution

Abstract

To mitigate the unfavorable effects of excessive water resources consumption, mainly induced by poor performance of irrigation practices, efficient water resource management strategies are required. In response to this need, we have, in an innovative way, enhanced the water resources management (WRM) strategies by both considering the regional conditions with the graph model for a conflict resolution (GMCR) decision support system, and linking the irrigation concept and water resources allocation theory to develop a coupled WRM simulation–optimization model. Typically, implementation of the modified WRM strategies may cause local conflicts because of losing the original water rights. To improve the current irrigation water allocation system with the minimum objections, the hypergame theory was utilized to enhance the capabilities of traditional GMCR models by including the parties’ misunderstandings in the negotiation process and assessing the partial perceptions rather than crisp options. Moreover, by dynamic monitoring of available water resources and water consumption patterns, a WRM simulation model was developed, which is applicable in real agricultural conditions of multi-agricultural zones with multi-crop and intercropping systems and variable water supply sources. The genetic algorithm was utilized to allocate the water resources and determine optimal WRM strategies with the lowest irrigation water shortage. The efficiency of the proposed framework was assessed in conventional agricultural zones in Oman. The recommended strategies not only address local conflicts during the implementation of optimal WRM strategies, but also demonstrate significant potential to reduce the water shortage as a serious environmental concern.