Mortality Prediction of COVID-19 Patients at Intensive Care Unit Admission

Abstract

Background Coronavirus-2019 (COVID-19) patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) have mortality rates between 30%-50%. Identifying patient factors associated with mortality can help identify critical patients early and treat them accordingly. Patients and methods In this retrospective study, the records of patients admitted to the COVID-19 ICU in a single tertiary care hospital from April 2020 to September 2020 were analysed. The clinical and laboratory parameters between patients who were discharged from the hospital (survival cohort) and those who died in the hospital (mortality cohort) were compared. A multivariate logistic regression model was constructed to identify parameters associated with mortality.  Results A total of 147 patients were included in the study. The age of the patients was 55 (45, 64), median (IQR), years. At admission, 23 (16%) patients were on mechanical ventilation and 73 (50%) were on non-invasive ventilation. Sixty patients (40%, 95% CI: 32.8 to 49.2%) had died. Patients who died had a higher Charlson comorbidity index (CCI): 3 (2, 4) vs. 2 (1, 3), p = 0.0019, and a higher admission sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score: 5 (4, 7) vs. 4 (3, 4), p < 0.001. Serum urea, serum creatinine, neutrophils on differential leukocyte count, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (N/L ratio), D-dimer, serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and C-reactive protein were higher in the mortality cohort. The ratio of partial pressure of arterial oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen, platelet count, lymphocytes on differential leukocyte count, and absolute lymphocyte count was lower in the mortality cohort. The parameters and cut-off values used for the multivariate logistic regression model included CCI > 2, SOFA score > 4, D-dimer > 1346 ng/mL, LDH > 514 U/L and N/L ratio > 27. The final model had an area under the curve of 0.876 (95% CI: 0.812 to 0.925), p < 0.001 with an accuracy of 78%. All five parameters were found to be independently associated with mortality.  Conclusions CCI, SOFA score, D-dimer, LDH, and N/L ratio are independently associated with mortality. A model incorporating the combination of these clinical and laboratory parameters at admission can predict COVID-19 ICU mortality with good accuracy.