Modelado de las temperaturas del aire a 850 milibares: Un potencial indicador de las ondas cálidas en el noroeste de México

Abstract

The temperatures of atmospheric air at 850 millibars are modeled to determine their potential as an indicator of heat waves in northwest Mexico. The analysis was performed at meso-scale level but focused on the city of Mexicali, Mexico. The main variables that cause the formation of a heat wave are identified, and the modeling of air temperature at 850 milibars as an indicator of its development. This is done considering eight climate variables, using six artificial intelligence algorithms. The numerical technique of artificial neural networks showed a better performance, obtaining a regression coefficient of 0.76 with a pvalue of 0.0019. It is concluded that this non-linear model is a promising tool that could be used in a warning system of this dangerous atmospheric phenomenon.