Climate Impacts on Dengue Risk in Brazil: Current and Future Risks

Abstract

Dengue fever is a climate-sensitive disease that affects thousands of Brazilians every year and generates substantial losses in private and public markets. This chapter aims to identify the roles of climate, both seasonal and historical, on the risk of dengue epidemics in Brazil while controlling for socioeconomical and political influences on the disease as well as the immune status and spatial contagion of populations. By testing and understanding the climate effects on dengue using a risk function for Brazilian data, this chapter intends to link two relevant agendas: the identification of ways to manage the climate related risks of today and improve the understanding of future risks in the country. The findings indicate that if climate change occurs as expected, there will be a potential added risk for central-southern areas in Brazil and a risk reduction for northern areas of the country. Short-term deviations from normal rainfall conditions in summer also increase the risk of dengue. Other relevant findings suggest the ineffectiveness of current local expenditures for epidemiological surveillance and the need for integrated actions to control the disease, which include the best use of climate forecast to predict dengue cases.