Preliminary study on hydrological angular momentum determined from CMIP6 historical simulations

Abstract

Polar motion (PM) is an essential parameter needed to transform coordinates between celestial and terrestrial reference frames, thus playing a crucial role in precise positioning and navigation. The role of hydrological signals in PM excitation is not yet fully understood, which is largely because of the lack of agreement between estimates of hydrological angular momentum (HAM) computed from different data sources. In this study, we used data obtained from the latest, sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to assess the impact of the continental hydrosphere on PM excitation. To do so, we exploited soil moisture and snow water variables obtained from historical simulations of CMIP6 to estimate climate-based HAM. The HAM series were computed, then we analysed their variability in terms of trends, seasonal and non-seasonal oscillations. An important part of this study is the validation of HAM estimates based on comparison with the hydrological signal in geodetically observed PM excitation (geodetic residuals, GAO). In addition, HAM series based on climate models were compared with those determined from global gravimetric data provided by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, and from the Land Surface Discharge Model (LSDM). This study also aimed to identify the most appropriate CMIP6 models for interpretation of PM variations. Overall, the correspondence between GAO and HAM received from CMIP6 was lower than the previously obtained consistency with GRACE results, and the level of agreement was dependent on the oscillation considered and the model used. However, it may be possible to identify several CMIP6 models from among the almost 100 available that provides a HAM series more compatible with GAO than HAM from GRACE or LSDM, especially in annual oscillations. The GISS-E2-1-G_historical_r10i1p1f1 model was found to provide the highest consistency with GAO for annual prograde amplitudes, GFDL-CM4_historical_r1i1p1f1 for annual retrograde amplitudes, BCC-ESM1_historical_r3i1p1f1 for the annual prograde phase, and MIROC-ES2L_historical_r2i1p1f2 for the annual retrograde phase. Because of their length, the CMIP6 data allow for analysis of the past and future changes in HAM from 1850 to 2100, which is of particular importance in the exploration of the impact of climate change on PM excitation. Graphical Abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.]