Post-9/11 evolution of Al Qaeda

Abstract

Before the 11 September 2001 attacks, Al-Qaeda had conducted an average of one attack every two years. Since then, Al-Qaeda and its associated groups – what could be termed the Al-Qaeda movement – have mounted an attack, on average, every three months. US successes in disrupting the Al-Qaeda network have also dispersed its operatives. Al-Qaeda organizers, operatives, financiers and other experts have moved out from Afghanistan and Pakistan to lawless zones in Asia, the Horn of Africa, the Middle East, and the Caucasus. To compensate for the loss of its training and operational infrastructure in Afghanistan, Al-Qaeda is seeking to establish new bases in Yemen, the Philippines, Indian Kashmir, Georgia and Chechnya. Whether this dispersed threat will escalate or de-escalate in the coming year depends on the USA’s ability to manage the deteriorating situation in Iraq and the willingness of Muslim governments to cooperate with the West. Certainly, Washington’s decision to intervene in Iraq complicated the security environment rather than reduced the threat of terrorism.