Precipitation Scenarios in the Central-western Mediterranean Basin

Abstract

The increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere could modify the hydrological cycle, in particular the rainfall regime. With reference to the Mediterranean basin, an analysis of precipitation in the period 1951-1995, indicates a rainfall reduction of 20%. On the basis of this trend a forecast of precipitation till 2030 has been performed using Winter's statistical model, which has been applied considering the Mediterranean Oscillation as forcing factor of climate. The obtained predictions show a rainfall decrease, particularly strong in the southern regions. In addition the soil moisture has been evaluated, using De Martonne's index. The results indicate a risk of desertification in some regions, due to the drying up of the soil in the future.