Assessment of Vilnius city development scenarios based on transport system modelling and multicriteria analysis

Abstract

The paper describes the assessment of 3 Vilnius city development scenarios according to transport system parameters multi-criteria analysis and performing transport system modelling for 2015 and 2025 years. Vilnius city development scenarios such as concentrated development, extensive development and decentralized concentrated development have been evaluated from a transport viewpoint. Vilnius city development scenarios have been evaluated by using SAW (Simple Additive Weighting) multi-criteria method. According to this method development scenarios ranking calculations have been performed using transport system indicators. Urban transport system analysis model was developed for Vilnius conditions, which estimates the fuel consumption, average travel distance and driven time by car in morning peak hours depending on urban areas development scenario and socio-economic data. This model should be used when calculating new projects of the transport infrastructure (by-passes, new bridges) and when evaluating the economic efficiency of traffic organization projects.