A Discrete time markov chain approach to global risk analysis in railway transportation

Abstract

Since the earliest days of railways, as traffic was increasing, there has been the need for developing safety devices and procedures with the aim of avoiding or, at least, minimising the likelihood of circulation hazards and their consequences. In this framework, since railways are large and distributed transportation systems, characterised by a high and heterogeneous technological level and by great infrastructure complexity, the problem of assessing the risk is very difficult to cope with. Then, in this paper, the main characteristics of the SIGLO project, defining an analysis process assess risk is described.