GEOSTATISTICS for AIR QUALITY MAPPING: CASE of BAGUIO CITY, PHILIPPINES

Abstract

Mapping of air quality are often based on ground measurements using gravimetric and air portable sensors, remote sensing methods and atmospheric dispersion models. In this study, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and geostatistical techniques are employed to evaluate coarse particulate matter (PM10) concentrations observed in the Central Business District of Baguio City, Philippines. Baguio City has been reported as one of the most polluted cities in the country and several studies have already been conducted in monitoring its air quality. The datasets utilized in this study are based on hourly simulations from a Gaussian-based atmospheric dispersion model that considers the impacts of vehicular emissions. Dispersion modeling results, i.e., PM10 concentrations at 20-meter interval, show that high values range from 135 to 422 μg/mm3. The pollutant concentrations are evident within 40 meters from the roads. Spatial variations and PM10 estimates at unsampled locations are determined using Ordinary Kriging. Geostatistical modeling estimates are evaluated based on recommended values for mean error (ME), root mean square error (RMSE) and standardized errors. Optimal predictors for pollutant concentrations at 5-meter interval include 2 to 5 search neighbors and variable smoothing factor for night-time datasets while 2 to 10 search neighbors and smoothing factors 0.3 to 0.5 were used for daytime datasets. Results from several interpolation tests indicate small ME (0.0003 to 0.0008 μg/m3) and average standardized errors (4.24 to 8.67 μg/m3). RMSE ranged from 2.95 to 5.43 μg/m3, which are approximately 2 to 3% of the maximum pollutant concentrations in the area. The methodology presented in this paper may be integrated with atmospheric dispersion models in refining estimates of pollutant concentrations, in generating surface representations, and in understanding the spatial variations of the outputs from the model simulations.