Renewable energy substitution in lieu of fossil fuel based energy for India

Abstract

Rapid globalization and industrialization is witnessed across the globe. This has led to a rapid increase in energy demand. In India, it is found that energy consumption is growing exponentially. A sustainable energy model that helps in optimizing the energy consumption is the need of the hour. The model should help policymakers to put proactive plans in place. A two-step process has been carried out. A demand prediction model is proposed to forecast the fossil based energy demand for India upto 2040-41. 92 econometric models have been were developed and the best fit was found. The requirement was found to be coal and lignite = 32203.42 pJ oil = 20396.92 PJ, natural gas = 3460.77 pJ and electricity = 9887.71 pJ. The total energy requirement in 2040-41 will be 65948 pJ in 2040-41. Using constraints such as energy return on investment, acceptability, reliability and CO2 emissions a multi-objective optimization model that maximizes efficiency and minimizes cost is developed. Renewable energy substitution scenarios are developed. Solar energy is expected to dominate and polices have to designed to ensure that the naturally available solar energy is being utilized to a larger extent. Smart grid technology is at its nascent stage of development in India. Research and development has to be done to enhance the use of smart grid so that decentralized energy generation from renewable energy can be increased.