The frequency of moderate to heavy rainfall events is projected to change in response to global warming. Here we show that these hydrologic changes may have a profound effect on mosquito population dynamics and rates of mosquito-borne disease transmission. We develop a simple model, which treats the mosquito reproductive cycle as a phase oscillator that responds to rainfall frequency forcing. This model reproduces observed mosquito population dynamics and indicates that mosquito-borne disease transmission can be sensitive to rainfall frequency. These findings indicate that changes to the hydrologic cycle, in particular the frequency of moderate to heavy rainfall events, could have a profound effect on the transmission rates of some mosquito-borne diseases. © 2007 Shaman, Day.
CITATION STYLE
Shaman, J., & Day, J. F. (2007). Reproductive phase locking of mosquito populations in response to rainfall frequency. PLoS ONE, 2(3). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0000331
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