Analysis of Rapid Demand Variation in Electric Vehicle Industry based on Innovation Diffusion Theory

Abstract

The emerging industries are usually driven by innovations and represent the development directions of advanced economic. Particularly, this manuscript explores the innovation diffusion and S-Curve theoriesto study emerging industries which are characterized with rapid demand variations, where the new energy vehicle industry serves as an example. The S-Curve is deduced in detail as a theoretical foundation for the study of the rapid demand changes of emerging industries. Base on authority data of vehicle sales in past decades, the NPS and EV30@30 scenarios from IEA are analysed to reveal the worldwide trend of electric vehicle industry. And as the largest market of new energy vehicles in the world, Chinese electric vehicle industry exhibits obvious impetus of government policies on the market development, and foresees a significant penetration of electric vehicles into traditional transportation sector in near future.