Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation Validation by Scenario Analysis

Abstract

In this chapter, we discuss how scenario analysis can contribute to the validation of agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS).We describe the basic architecture and characteristics of ABMS. We also introduce the concept and method of scenario analysis and explain that validation by users (stakeholders) is critical for the acceptance of ABMS practitioners’ proposals. Next, we discuss a validation problem relative to the arbitrary representation of ABMS results. For this problem, we propose a framework of ABMS validation that emphasizes the stakeholders’ learning through a participatory scenario-analysis phase with no arbitrary ABMS results. Furthermore, we recognize the need for an information system that supports the participatory scenario-analysis phase by the stakeholders in real time. Finally, we conclude that scenario analysis solves the validation problem of arbitrarily presenting ABMS results.