Educational mismatch in recent university graduates. The role of labour mobility

Abstract

This article analyses patterns of persistence in both vertical and horizontal educational mismatch in the early career of university graduates in Spain, with particular emphasis on the mediating role of job mobility. We explore whether educational mismatch is a stepping stone towards better-matched positions or whether graduates get trapped in mismatched jobs. Our results show that job mobility partially corrects educational mismatch (supporting the stepping stone hypothesis), but there is still a strong persistence in educational mismatches four years after graduation (the trap hypothesis). Vertical mismatch is, overall, less persistent than horizontal mismatch, in part because some horizontally mismatched graduates lack incentives to make corrective movements across employers because of compensating job features that keep them in their first jobs. Job rotation and poor accumulation of employment experience challenge the correcting role of job mobility in educational mismatch risk. These results reflect relevant features of the Spanish labour market: segmentation, intensive job turnover and high youth unemployment.