Will the North Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation weaken during the 21st century?

Abstract

The North Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation is examined in three experiments using the Climate System Model. They are a control integration for 1870 conditions, and particular emission scenarios for the 10th and 21st centuries. It is found that the strength og the thermohaline circulation does not change significantly over the 21st century. This is in contrast to several other recent studies, which have projected a significant reduction over the 21st century. The reason for the difference is that the Northwest Atlantic becomes warmer and more saline in the Climate System Model. These changes combine to make little change to the surface ocean density in this region, and hence to the rate of deep water formation. Caveats about the Climate System Model and other coupled climate models are then discussed.