Two complementary model-based methods for calculating the risk of international spreading of anovel virus from the outbreak epicentre. The case of COVID-19

Abstract

We present two complementary model-based methods for calculating the risk of international spread of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2from the outbreak epicentre. One model aims to calculate the number of cases that would be exported from an endemic country to disease-free regionsby travellers. The second model calculates the probability that an infected traveller will generate at least one secondary autochthonous case in the visited country. Although this paper focuses on the data from China, our methods can be adapted to calculate the risk of importation and subsequent outbreaks. We found an average 0 R = 5.31 (ranging from 4.08 to 7.91) and a risk of spreading of 0.75 latent individuals per 1000 travellers. In addition, one infective traveler would be able to generate at least one secondary autochthonous case in the visited country with a probability of 23%.