Forecasting the big services era: Novel approach combining statistical methods, expertise and technology roadmapping

Abstract

This paper aims at proposing a novel approach to gathering and structuring information concerning an emerging technology, generating a relevant profile, identifying its past evolution, forecasting the short and medium-term evolution and integrating all of the elements graphically into a hybrid roadmap. The approach combines four families of technological forecasting methods, namely: Statistical Methods in terms of Bibliometrics and Data Mining; Trend Analysis; Descriptive Methods in terms of Technological Roadmapping; and Expertise. Its future application to forecast the evolution of emerging IT trends in current entities, which are creating the Big Services era, is proposed as future work.