Application of game theory against nature in supporting bid pricing in construction

Abstract

The problem of setting prices for construction works is significant for both the investor and contractor companies. The periodically occurring instabilities in the economy require investment process participants to perform detailed market analyses and assessments, as well as to monitor price forecasts in construction. It is only after such an assessment that it is possible within the framework of the initial assumptions for cost calculation to select the basis for setting prices and their levels. The identification and analysis of the risks related to uncontrolled price increases allow contractors to secure their businesses by developing bids that ensure maximum profit. In view of the above, this study proposes an approach based on the use of game theory against nature to identify the optimal variant of a bid estimate. The study considers price forecasts for construction products, which may reduce the negative impact in case the prices increase. The obtained results confirmed the effectiveness of the used decision-making support methods, indicating the optimal strategy to reduce financial losses in times of market instability. The proposed approach also allows for a balance (symmetry) between maximum profit and probability of winning the contract.