A simplified forecasting model for the estimation of container traffic in seaports at a national level – the case of Poland

Abstract

Comprehensive forecasting of future volumes of container traffic in seaports is important when it comes to port development, including investments, especially in relation to costly transport infrastructure (e.g. new terminals). The aim of this article is to present a specific, simplified model of demand forecasting for container traffic in seaports as well as to give a practical verification of the model in the Polish seaport sector. The model consists of relevant indexes of containerisation (values, dynamics) referring to the macroeconomic characteristics of the country of cargo origin as well as destination-predictor variables (e.g. population, foreign trade, gross domestic product). This method will facilitate the evaluation of three basic segments of the container market: foreign trade services, maritime transit flows and land transit flows. International comparisons of indexes (benchmarking) as well as extrapolations of future changes can support this prediction process. A practical implementation of this research has enabled us to calculate that the total container volume in Poland will be approximately 4.69 – 4.87 million TEU by the year 2023.