A dynamic multi-expert multi-criteria decision making model for risk analysis

Abstract

Risks behavior may vary over time. New risks may appear, secondary risks may arises from the treatment of initial risks and the project managers may decide to ignore some insignificant risks. These facts demand to perform Risk Analysis in a dynamic way to support decisions by an effective and continuous process instead of single one. Risk Analysis is usually solved using Multi-Criteria Decision Making methods that are not efficient in handling the changes of risks exposure values during different periods. Therefore, our aim in this contribution is to propose a Dynamic Multi-Expert Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model for Risk Analysis, which allows not only to integrate the traditional dimensions of risks (probability and impact), but also to consider the current and past performances of risks exposure values in the project life cycle. © Springer-Verlag 2013.