Task-Relevant Encoding of Domain Knowledge in Dynamics Modeling: Application to Furnace Forecasting from Video

Abstract

Waste incineration plants are complex dynamical systems that rely on expert human operators to maintain steady combustion, by observing real-time in-chamber video feeds. Real-time plant forecasting provides vital operational support in decision making, and applying machine learning to automatically learn dynamics forecast models from video feeds is an attractive means to realise this. However, learning complex dynamics in systems that requires cost-efficiency remains an open research problem. Specifically, modelling plant dynamics in real-time is challenging due to uncertainties caused by inhomogeneous waste inputs, requiring complex learning that impedes real-time modelling. To address this, this paper presents a real-time data-driven framework for generating video forecasts, by incorporating task-relevant domain-knowledge, during learning. Specifically, this method combines dynamics modelling and forecasting using dynamic mode decomposition, with Fourier transformations informed by expert operator heuristic knowledge for encoding task-relevant frequency information inside the learning process. Experiments in this paper demonstrate that the proposed framework captures intuitive physical aspects of the underlying physiochemical process, with a greatly reduced computational runtime in comparison to standard approaches, allowing for application in real-time domains. Forecasted video predictions are accurate over short time horizons, and capture important system characteristics over longer time periods.