Anticipating terrorist safe havens from instability induced conflict

Abstract

This chapter presents recent methods developed at the Center for Army Analysis to classify patterns of nation-state instability that lead to conflict. The ungoverned areas endemic to failed nation-states provide terrorist organizations with safe havens from which to plan and execute terrorist attacks. Identification of those states at risk for instability induced conflict should help to facilitate effective counter terrorism policy planning efforts. Nation-states that experience instability induced conflict are similar in that they share common instability factors that make them susceptible to experiencing conflict. We utilize standard pattern classification algorithms to identify these patterns. First, we identify features (political, military, economic and social) that capture the instability of a nation-state. Second, we forecast the future levels of these features for each nation-state. Third, we classify each future state's conflict potential based upon the conflict level of those states in the past most similar to the future state. © 2009 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.