Towards Reducing Climate Change Impact Assessment Process Uncertainty

Abstract

Three different sources of process-based uncertainty in climate change impact studies have been identified. It has been demonstrated that uncertainty can arise from: a) differences in the process approach, b) differences in the methods used in each step of the process, and c) differences in the space, time and distribution scales considered for analysis. The discussion of possible reasons behind the observed differences in climate change assessment analyses follows. It has been recommended that the selection of robust methods, which not only perform well on historical timeline but also keep the climate models changes intact, is the key to reduce process-based uncertainty in climate projections. Further, it is advised that future climate projections be analysed at all space, time, distribution coordinates located within the domain of interest in order to obtain a comprehensive picture of the changes projected by the climate models.