China-Russia relations in Central Asia: Energy policy, Beijing’s new assertiveness and 21st century geopolitics

Abstract

As China rises to global power status, its relations with other major powers, including Russia, are constantly renegotiated. Energy figures prominently in both countries’ foreign policy. An extensive analysis of Chinese language sources – academic debate 1997-2012 – confirms a collision of interests over Central Asian reserves. While unanimous appeals to compromise render previous predictions of impending confrontation unconvincing, descriptions of Sino-Central Asian energy relations as “central to energy security”, and the explicit rejection of a Russian “sphere of influence”, also exclude a retreat. In the long term, China will likely replace Russia as the dominant force in Central Asia’s energy sector, causing the Kremlin to perceive another “encroachment”. The current notion of a “strategic partnership” will inevitably be challenged.​.