Susceptibility areas identification and risk assessment of debris flow using the Flow-R model: a case study of Basu County of Tibet

Abstract

Background: Uncertainties exist in the magnitude and outbreak of debris flow disasters, resulting in significant loss of lives and property to human society. Improved identification of debris flow susceptibility areas can help to predict the location and sphere of influence of debris flow disaster, thus accurately assessing the risk of debris flow disaster and reducing losses caused by such a disaster. The dry-hot valleys of Basu County in the Eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are typical areas of high debris flow incidence, mapping of debris flow susceptibility identification and regional risk assessment is needed in this area. Results: The parameters improved Flow-R model was first applied to identify debris flow susceptibility areas in Basu county using the digital elevation model, flow accumulation, slope, plan curvature, and land use data, followed by debris flow risk assessment. The Flow-R model can output high result accuracy of high-resolution susceptibility to debris flow identification on a regional scale with less data, and its accuracy value is 87.6%, indicating that the susceptibility to regional debris flow disaster is credible. This study provides a useful basis for effective prevention of regional debris flow disasters in the future, and provides a useful method for effectively identifying the debris flow susceptibility areas and assessing the related risk in large-scale areas. Conclusions: (1) The debris flow susceptibility areas in Basu County covered 97.04 km2 (0.79% of the study area), distributed mainly in the Nujiang River Valley, Lengqu tributaries, and both sides of National Highway 318. (2) The debris flow susceptibility areas were dominant in zones characterized by an altitude range of 3000–4000 m, a plane curvature of − 2/100 m−1 to 1/100 m−1, and a low slope of 20°–40°. In addition, the susceptibility areas were dominant in the unused land and less prevalent in the water area. The highest and lowest susceptibility values were observed for cultivated and unused lands, respectively. (3) The debris flow risk in the study areas accounted for 0.82 km2 and revealed a distribution of high-risk debris flow along roads. The areas with a high debris flow risk were mainly distributed along the mainstream of the Nujiang River, which is the main future protected area.