Decreased dengue transmission in migrant worker populations in Singapore attributable to SARS-CoV-2 quarantine measures

Abstract

Background: We examined the impact of SARS-CoV-2 social distancing and quarantine policies on dengue transmission in the general and migrant worker populations in Singapore. Methods: We utilized all nationally reported dengue cases in the general and migrant worker populations from 1 January 2013 to 31 May 2020. A difference-in-difference identification strategy was used to determine the effects of social distancing and quarantine policies on reported dengue case counts over time, whilst controlling for weather patterns, seasonality, age and population size. Results: A reduction of 4.8 dengue cases per age band among migrant workers was attributable to quarantine policies, corresponding to a total reduction of around 432 reported dengue cases over 10 weeks. In the general working population, an increase of 14.5 dengue cases per age band was observed, which corresponds to a total increase of around 1450 reported dengue cases in the same time period. There is an expected relative risk reduction in dengue transmission for the migrant worker population at 0.635 due to quarantine policy and a relative risk increase for the general working population due to social distancing policies at 0.685. Conclusions: Migrant workers experienced a reduced risk of dengue when they were confined to their dormitories as part of the COVID-19 social distancing measures. Our study highlights the vulnerability of migrant workers under normal working conditions.