The global, regional, and national burden of pancreatitis in 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Abstract

Background: Pancreatitis is a critical public health problem, and the burden of pancreatitis is increasing. We report the rates and trends of the prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for pancreatitis at the global, regional, and national levels in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017, stratified by sex, age, and sociodemographic index (SDI). Methods: Data on pancreatitis were available from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017. Numbers and age-standardized prevalence, incidence, and YLDs’ rates per 100,000 population were estimated through a systematic analysis of modeled data from the 2017 GBD study. Both acute and chronic pancreatitis are being modeled separately in the GBD 2017; however, our data show acute and chronic pancreatitis together. Estimates were reported with uncertainty intervals (UIs). Results: Globally, in 2017, the age-standardized rates were 76.2 (95% UIs 68.9 to 83.4), 20.6 (19.2 to 22.1), and 4.5 (2.3 to 7.6) per 100,000 population for the point prevalence, incidence, and YLDs, respectively. From 1990 to 2017, the percent changes in the age-standardized prevalence and YLDs rates increased, whereas the age-standardized incidence rate decreased. The global prevalence increased with age up to 60–64 years and 44–49 years in females and males, respectively, and then decreased, with no significant difference between females and males. The global prevalence rate increased with age, peaking in the 95+ age group, with no difference between sexes. Generally, positive correlation between age-standardized YLDs and SDIs at the regional and national levels was observed. Slovakia (297.7 [273.4 to 325.3]), Belgium (274.3 [242.6 to 306.5]), and Poland (266.7 [248.2 to 284.4]) had the highest age-standardized prevalence rates in 2017. Taiwan (Province of China) (104.2% [94.8 to 115.2%]), Maldives (72.4% [66.5 to 79.2%]), and Iceland (64.8% [57.2 to 72.9%]) had the largest increases in age-standardized prevalence rates from 1990 to 2017. Conclusions: Pancreatitis is a major public health issue worldwide. The age-standardized prevalence and YLDs rates increased, but the age-standardized incidence rate decreased from 1990 to 2017. Improving the quality of pancreatitis health data in all regions and countries is strongly recommended for better monitoring the burden of pancreatitis.