Produção e exportação de algodão: efeitos de choques de oferta e de demanda

Abstract

This paper is intended to analyze the growth pattern of the Brazilian cotton production after 1960. During this period the cotton crop expanded to new regions based on a new production system. An economic model is developed to measure the contributions of supply and demand shocks to the growth in cotton production. Thirty percent of that growth was attributed to productivity gains and 15% is related to the evolution of prices. Twenty five percent of the exports growth is attributed to productivity as well. The results indicate that - once established an economic scenario - land area and production adjust to it according to an auto-regressive process over a decade or more. © 2009 Fundação Getúlio Vargas.