A regime-switching approach to the study of speculative attacks: A focus on EMS crises

Abstract

This paper implements a regime-switching framework to study speculative attacks against EMS currencies during 1979-1993. To identify speculative episodes, we model exchange rates, reserves, and interest rates as time series subject to discrete regime shifts between two possible states: ''tranquil'' and ''speculative''. We allow the probabilities of switching between states to be a function of fundamentals and expectations. The regime-switching framework improves the ability to identify speculative attacks visa `-vis the indices of speculative pressure used in the literature. The results also indicate that fundamentals (particularly budget deficits) and expectations drive the probability of switching to a speculative state.