Long-term generation scheduling for cascade hydropower plants considering price correlation between multiple markets

Abstract

The large-scale cascade hydropower plants in southwestern China now challenge a multi-market environment in the new round of electricity market reform. They not only have to supply the load for the local provincial market, but also need to deliver electricity to the central and eastern load centers in external markets, which makes the generation scheduling much more complicated, with a correlated uncertain market environment. Considering the uncertainty of prices and correlation between multiple markets, this paper has proposed a novel optimization model of long-term generation scheduling for cascade hydropower plants in multiple markets to seek for the maximization of overall benefits. The Copula function is introduced to describe the correlation of stochastic prices between multiple markets. The price scenarios that obey the Copula fitting function are then generated and further reduced by using a scenario reduction strategy that combines hierarchical clustering and inconsistent values. The proposed model is applied to perform the long-term generation scheduling for the Wu River cascade hydropower plants and achieves an increase of 106.93 million yuan of annual income compared with the conventional scheduling model, without considering price scenarios, showing better performance in effectiveness and robustness in multiple markets.