COVID-19, Violent Crime, and Domestic Violence: An Exploratory Analysis

Abstract

As the world continues to struggle with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been much speculation on the impact of the virus on crime rates, especially violent crime and domestic violence. Disruptions in the patterns of daily, routine activities of life caused by lockdowns have been linked to changes in opportunities for criminal events, and these opportunities may vary based on the type of crime. The purpose of this paper is to examine the rates of violent interpersonal crime and domestic violence in the State of Florida, USA from 1/1/2020 to 12/31/2020. Using counties as the unit of analysis, the rates for selected violent crimes was predicted based on the differential impact of the COVID-19 virus, controlling for various county-level social vulnerability and health-related factors. Comparisons between violent crime levels in 2019 and 2020 were also made. Under opportunity theory, it was predicted that the level of domestic violence would increase in counties that experienced higher infection rates and deaths from COVID-19. Conversely, it was predicted that interpersonal violence would decrease in counties with greater impacts and restrictions due to the COVID-19 virus. The results suggest that as the COVID-19 death rate increased, incidents of domestic violence decreased. Altruism was proposed as an alternative explanation for this atypical finding.