Sweden backcasting, now?-Strategic planning for Covid-19 mitigation in a liberal democracy

Abstract

Sweden is applying the herd-immunity as its main natural science strategy to combat the Covid-19 pandemic. This has been communicated in a transparent manner. Small groups of young(er) people of up to approximately 50 individuals are subject to a bigger risk of infection than others. The objective of this paper is to make a case for the argument, that alongside herd-immunity, Sweden is using the social science originated planning approach: backcasting. The government has not been transparent on backcasting. The authors present the use of backcasting only as an argument based on available data and authors' reasoning. A backcasting exercise for the case of the Swedish economy is constructed. This frame outlines five interdependent levels with which a national economy can apply what this paper calls a backcasting herd-immunity approach in its COVID-19 policy. The authors further suggest how it is possible to use social science, natural science and political ideology as complementary in COVID-19 mitigation in particular and in sustainability strategies in general.