Multi-step wind speed forecasting based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition, long short term memory network and error correction strategy

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Abstract

It is of great significance for wind power plant to construct an accurate multi-step wind speed prediction model, especially considering its operations and grid integration. By integrating with a data pre-processing measure, a parameter optimization algorithm and error correction strategy, a novel forecasting method for multi-step wind speed in short period is put forward in this article. In the suggested measure, the EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition) is applied to extract a series of IMFs (intrinsic mode functions) from the initial wind data sequence; the LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) measure is executed as the major forecasting method for each IMF; the GRNN (general regression neural network) is executed as the secondary forecasting method to forecast error sequences for each IMF; and the BSO (Brain Storm Optimization) is employed to optimize the parameter for GRNN during the training process. To verify the validity of the suggested EEMD-LSTM-GRNN-BSO model, eight models were applied on three different wind speed sequences. The calculation outcomes reveal that: (1) the EEMD is able to boost the wind speed prediction capacity and robustness of the LSTM approach effectively; (2) the BSO based parameter optimization method is effective in finding the optimal parameter for GRNN and improving the forecasting performance for the EEMD-LSTM-GRNN model; (3) the error correction method based on the optimized GRNN promotes the forecasting accuracy of the EEMD-LSTM model significantly; and (4) compared with all models involved, the proposed EEMD-LSTM-GRNN-BSO model is proved to have the best performance in predicting the short-term wind speed sequence.

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APA

Huang, Y., Yang, L., Liu, S., & Wang, G. (2019). Multi-step wind speed forecasting based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition, long short term memory network and error correction strategy. Energies, 12(10). https://doi.org/10.3390/en12101822

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