An Immunizing Effect? Internally Differentiating the Link Between Christian Religiosity and Voting for Populist Right Parties

Abstract

The article takes up the immunization hypothesis propagated in previous research, according to which Christian religiosity protects against voting for populist right parties, and develops an alternative interpretation of the linkage. Relying on the 2015 and 2017 German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) and the 2018 German General Social Survey (GGSS), I provide an internal differentiation of Christian voters. The focus is not on common dimensions of religiosity, but on Christians’ claim to religion. It is assumed that Christian voters with an exclusive religious claim more often vote for populist right parties than do those with an inclusive religious claim, and that the more pronounced populist right positions of Christians with an exclusive religious claim are responsible for this. Theoretically, these assumptions are justified in four steps. First, a perceived threat among Christian voters with an exclusive religious claim is diagnosed. Second, mobilization arguments of populist right parties are identified that can provide a response to this threat perception. Third, interdependencies among religious and political worldviews are addressed, suggesting that an exclusive religious claim and populist right positions are linked via the function of nomization. Finally, the translation of populist right positions into voting for populist right parties is explained. Empirically, the link between religious claim and voting for populist right parties as well as the mediating effect of populist right positions can be confirmed. This demonstrates that religiosity can have an immunizing effect on voting for populist right parties in the case of an inclusive religious claim, but it can also have a catalyzing effect in the case of an exclusive religious claim. This indicates a shift in relevant cleavages in the German electorate.