Alternative Futures at the Manoa School

Abstract

This essay explains and illustrates how the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies [www.futures.hawaii.edu] (and the “Manoa School” of futures studies more broadly [Christopher B. Jones, “The Manoa School of Futures Studies,” Futures Research Quarterly, Winter, 1992, pp. 19–25]) conceives of and uses “alternative futures” (sometimes called “scenarios”). Our use is not unique; it is similar to the way some other futures groups use scenarios. But it also contrasts significantly from most uses of scenarios, and especially from “scenario planning.” [Peter Bishop, et al., “The current state of scenario development,” Foresight, Vol. 9, No. 1, 2007, 5–25, and Timothy Chermack, et al., “A review of scenario planning literature,” Futures Research Quarterly, Summer 2001, pp. 7–31.] We notice considerable confusion within the futures field about the meaning of these terms, and hope that this essay will help make clear to others our use. We are not interested in “correcting” others’ usage, or in establishing a uniform terminology so much as helping people understand the sometimes very different meanings of the same terms.